The world of college football is abuzz with a unique question: Are upsets by FCS teams over Power Four opponents a thing of the past? As we delve into this intriguing topic, it's essential to understand the context and implications of such an occurrence.
The Upset Drought
The last time an FCS team shocked a Power Four opponent was in 2023, when Sacramento State pulled off an upset against Stanford. Since then, two full seasons have passed without a single upset. This streak of 125 consecutive wins for Power conference teams against FCS competition has sparked a debate: is this the end of an era, or just a temporary lull?
Widening Talent Gap
One of the primary reasons for this shift is the widening talent gap between the FBS and FCS levels. The transfer portal and NIL era have played a significant role in this. FBS power conference teams have an incredible win record of 223-2 since 2022, highlighting the difficulty FCS programs face in retaining their top players. This talent drain is evident not only at the top but also within the Group of Six teams, who have seen their win rate against FCS opponents decline.
Potential Shockers in 2026
Despite the odds, there are still opportunities for FCS teams to pull off upsets. Here are six games that could potentially end the drought:
No. 3 South Dakota State vs. Northwestern: South Dakota State, a two-time FCS national champion, faces Northwestern, a team with a history of FCS upsets. The Jackrabbits' return of quarterback Chase Mason adds an intriguing element to this matchup.
No. 9 Youngstown State vs. Kentucky: Youngstown State brings back the reigning Walter Payton Award winner, Beau Brungard, who could pose a significant threat to Kentucky's defense.
No. 10 North Dakota vs. Nebraska: North Dakota, which almost upset Kansas State in 2025, takes on Nebraska, a team that narrowly escaped an upset by the Fighting Hawks in 2022.
No. 14 Tennessee Tech vs. Mississippi State: Tennessee Tech, with a strong 2025 season and a reloaded transfer class, faces a Mississippi State team that could be vulnerable after a tough SEC schedule.
No. 17 Austin Peay vs. Vanderbilt: Austin Peay, led by quarterback Chris Parson, a Walter Payton Award finalist, aims to challenge Vanderbilt, a team that has experienced recent success but also suffered an embarrassing loss to an FCS team in 2022.
No. 22 Monmouth vs. West Virginia: Monmouth, with a history of giving Group of Six teams a run for their money, takes on West Virginia, a team that has undergone significant roster turnover under Rich Rodriguez.
Implications and Reflections
The potential for these upsets goes beyond the outcome of a single game. It raises questions about the future of college football and the balance between different levels of competition. Are we witnessing a permanent shift in the power dynamics, or will the FCS teams find a way to level the playing field?
Personally, I find it fascinating how the transfer portal and NIL era have accelerated the talent gap, creating an almost insurmountable challenge for FCS teams. Yet, as we've seen in the past, upsets can happen, and these six games offer a glimpse of hope for FCS programs and their fans.
What makes this particularly intriguing is the human element - the coaches, players, and strategies that could tip the scales in an unexpected direction. It's a reminder that, in the world of sports, anything is possible, and sometimes, the underdogs write the most memorable stories.
